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PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR DOLAR AMERIKA DENGAN RUPIAH TERHADAP VOLUME EKSPOR DAN IMPOR DI INDONESIA

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ABSTRACT EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE OF RUPIAH AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR TO THE VOLUME OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN INDONESIA By: Orlando Victorson simanjuntak This study aims to determine how the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar to the volume of export and import in Indonesia. In this research, the research method used is descriptive method, the technique of data collection through direct observation to address the official website of Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics, via email and telephone interviews, and library research. Analysis is conducted the analysis and processing of data exchange with the U.S. dollar against rupiah and volume of export and import in Indonesia per month during 2010 to 2012. The nature of the U.S. dollar exchange rate has no significant effect on exports. It can be seen from the significant value that is greater than 0.05, that is equal to 0.411. As for imports, the exchange rate also does not have a significant effect. It can be seen from the significant value that is greater than 0.05, that is equal to 0.172. This shows that Ho is accepted. So, there is no significant influence of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar to the volume of exports and imports. Meanwhile, to determine the contribution of variable X (the exchange rate) to variable Y1 (the export volume) and Y2 (import volume), can be seen from the regression coefficients, i.e 2,985,000 for exports and 644.435 for imports, which indicates the magnitude of the change in the volume of exports and imports for each changes in the exchange rate.